Comments on generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation.

Romanowicz, Renata and Beven, Keith J. (2006) Comments on generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 91 (10-11). pp. 1315-1321. ISSN 0951-8320

Abstract

The paper presents an application of the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation methodology to the problem of estimating the uncertainty of predictions produced by environmental models. The methodology is placed in a wider context of different approaches to inverse modelling and, in particular, a comparison is made with Bayesian estimation techniques based on explicit structural assumptions about model error. Using a simple example of a rainfall-flow model, different evaluation measures and their influence on the prediction uncertainty and credibility intervals are demonstrated.