Adaptive forecasting of phytoplankton communities

Page, Trevor and Smith, Paul J. and Beven, Keith J. and Jones, Ian D. and Elliott, J. Alex and Maberly, Stephen C. and Mackay, Eleanor B. and De Ville, Mitzi and Feuchtmayr, Heidrun (2018) Adaptive forecasting of phytoplankton communities. Water Research, 134. pp. 74-85. ISSN 0043-1354

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Abstract

The global proliferation of harmful algal blooms poses an increasing threat to water resources, recreation and ecosystems. Predicting the occurrence of these blooms is therefore needed to assist water managers in making management decisions to mitigate their impact. Evaluation of the potential for forecasting of algal blooms using the phytoplankton community model PROTECH was undertaken in pseudo-real-time. This was achieved within a data assimilation scheme using the Ensemble Kalman Filter to allow uncertainties and model nonlinearities to be propagated to forecast outputs. Tests were made on two mesotrophic lakes in the English Lake District, which differ in depth and nutrient regime. Some forecasting success was shown for chlorophyll a, but not all forecasts were able to perform better than a persistence forecast. There was a general reduction in forecast skill with increasing forecasting period but forecasts for up to four or five days showed noticeably greater promise than those for longer periods. Associated forecasts of phytoplankton community structure were broadly consistent with observations but their translation to cyanobacteria forecasts was challenging owing to the interchangeability of simulated functional species.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Water Research
Additional Information:
This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Water Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Water Research, 134, 2018 DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2018.01.046
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2311
Subjects:
ID Code:
90165
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
07 Feb 2018 15:04
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
01 Oct 2020 02:23