Explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineering

Kravitz, Ben and MacMartin, Douglas G. and Leedal, David and Rasch, Philip J. and Jarvis, Andrew James (2014) Explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineering. Environmental Research Letters, 9 (4): 044006. ISSN 1748-9326

Abstract

Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a method of meeting climate objectives, such as reduced globally averaged surface temperatures. However, because of incomplete understanding of the effects of geoengineering on the climate system, its implementation would be in the presence of substantial uncertainties. In our study, we use two fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models: one in which the geoengineering strategy is designed, and one in which geoengineering is implemented (a real-world proxy). We show that regularly adjusting the amount of solar geoengineering in response to departures of the observed global mean climate state from the predetermined objective (sequential decision making; an explicit feedback approach) can manage uncertainties and result in achievement of the climate objective in both the design model and the real-world proxy. This approach results in substantially less error in meeting global climate objectives than using a predetermined time series of how much geoengineering to use, especially if the estimated sensitivity to geoengineering is inaccurate.