When to issue a flood warning : towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts

Smith, Paul James and Beven, Keith John (2014) When to issue a flood warning : towards a risk-based approach based on real time probabilistic forecasts. In: Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk : Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), pp. 1395-1404. ISBN 9780784413609

Abstract

In operational flood forecasting, the decision to issue a warning to the community at risk has to be made in real time based on evolving probabilistic forecasts of the hazard. However, not only is the hazard forecast changing in time, but so too are the exposure and vulnerability. This may be the result of changes in the location of assets and people, or - more qualitatively - in a loss or gain for the reputation of the forecasting authority. In this work, we take the first steps towards quantifying these to form a risk-based framework for making the decision to issue a warning using an example catchment in the UK.