A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social-ecological systems

Cinner, Joshua Eli and Pratchett, Morgan Stuart and Graham, Nicholas Anthony James and Messmer, Vanessa and Fuentes, Mariana Menezes Prata Bezerra and Ainsworth, Tracy and Ban, Natalie and Bay, Line Kolind and Blythe, Jessica and Dissard, Delphine and Dunn, Simon and Evans, Louisa and Fabinyi, Michael and Fidelman, Pedro and Figueiredo, Joana and Frisch, Ashley John and Fulton, Christopher John and Hicks, Christina Chemtai and Lukoschek, Vimoksalehi and Mallela, Jennie and Moya, Aurelie and Penin, Lucie and Rummer, Jodie Lynn and Walker, Stefan and Williamson, David Hall (2016) A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social-ecological systems. Regional Environmental Change, 16 (4). pp. 1133-1146. ISSN 1436-3798

Abstract

Corals and coral-associated species are highly vulnerable to the emerging effects of global climate change. The widespread degradation of coral reefs, which will be accelerated by climate change, jeopardizes the goods and services that tropical nations derive from reef ecosystems. However, climate change impacts to reef social-ecological systems can also be bi-directional. For example, some climate impacts, such as storms and sea level rise, can directly impact societies, with repercussions for how they interact with the environment. This study identifies the multiple impact pathways within coral reef social-ecological systems arising from four key climatic drivers: increased sea surface temperature, severe tropical storms, sea level rise and ocean acidification. We develop a novel framework for investigating climate change impacts in social-ecological systems, which helps to highlight the diverse impacts that must be considered in order to develop a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change, as well as developing appropriate management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on coral reef and people.