Facets of uncertainty:epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication

Beven, Keith John (2016) Facets of uncertainty:epistemic uncertainty, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61 (9). pp. 1652-1665. ISSN 0262-6667

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Abstract

This paper presents a discussion of some of the issues associated with the multiple sources of uncertainty and non-stationarity in the analysis and modelling of hydrological systems. Different forms of aleatory, epistemic, semantic, and ontological uncertainty are defined. The potential for epistemic uncertainties to induce disinformation in calibration data and arbitrary non-stationarities in model error characteristics, and surprises in predicting the future, are discussed in the context of other forms of non-stationarity. It is suggested that a condition tree is used to be explicit about the assumptions that underlie any assessment of uncertainty. This also provides an audit trail for providing evidence to decision makers.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Hydrological Sciences Journal
Additional Information:
This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Hydrological Sciences Journal on 07/04/2016, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02626667.2015.1031761
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2312
Subjects:
ID Code:
80457
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
04 Aug 2016 09:28
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
05 Apr 2020 04:06