Short-term solar irradiation forecasting based on dynamic harmonic regression

Trapero, Juan R. and Kourentzes, Nikos and Martin, Alberto (2015) Short-term solar irradiation forecasting based on dynamic harmonic regression. Energy, 84. pp. 289-295. ISSN 0360-5442

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Abstract

Solar power generation is a crucial research area for countries that have high dependency on fossil energy sources and is gaining prominence with the current shift to renewable sources of energy. In order to integrate the electricity generated by solar energy into the grid, solar irradiation must be reasonably well forecasted, where deviations of the forecasted value from the actual measured value involve significant costs. The present paper proposes a univariate Dynamic Harmonic Regression model set up in a State Space framework for short-term (1 to 24 hours) solar irradiation forecasting. Time series hourly aggregated as the Global Horizontal Irradiation and the Direct Normal Irradiation will be used to illustrate the proposed approach. This method provides a fast automatic identification and estimation procedure based on the frequency domain. Furthermore, the recursive algorithms applied offer adaptive predictions. The good forecasting performance is illustrated with solar irradiance measurements collected from ground-based weather stations located in Spain. The results show that the Dynamic Harmonic Regression achieves the lowest relative Root Mean Squared Error; about 30% and 47% for the Global and Direct irradiation components, respectively, for a forecast horizon of 24 hours ahead.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Energy
Additional Information:
This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy, 84, 2015 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.02.100
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2310
Subjects:
ID Code:
73366
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
09 Apr 2015 08:46
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
25 Oct 2020 03:09