Use of individual and group seasonal indices in subaggregate demand forecasting

Chen, H. and Boylan, John (2007) Use of individual and group seasonal indices in subaggregate demand forecasting. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 58 (12). pp. 1660-1671. ISSN 0160-5682

Abstract

An individual seasonal indices (ISI) method and two group seasonal indices (GSI) methods proposed in the literature are compared, based on two models. Rules have been established to choose between these methods and insights are gained on the conditions under which one method outperforms the others. Simulation findings confirm that using the rules improves forecasting accuracy against universal application of these methods.