Shi, DongFang and Brooks, Roger (2009) Determining the range of predictions for calibrated agent-based simulation models. In: INFORMS Simulation Society Research Workshop Simulation: At the Interface of Modeling and Analysis, 2009-06-25 - 2009-06-27.
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
Agent-based simulation is increasingly used to study systems in many areas of business and science. Using agentbased simulation for prediction could be very valuable. However, these models usually have many parameters which are difficult to measure directly leading to uncertainty as to the best values to use. It is very important to consider the alternative feasible sets of parameter values, otherwise the modeling results could be misleading. A method is described to take account of this when making predictions and was applied to an agent-based word of mouth consumer model. The result was a wide prediction range indicating the limitations of using such a model for predictions. The method could also be applied in other situations.