When can pessimism add value? How real option disinvestment flexibility augments project NPV

Keswani, A and Shackleton, M B (2002) When can pessimism add value? How real option disinvestment flexibility augments project NPV. Working Paper. The Department of Accounting and Finance, Lancaster University.

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Abstract

In this article by drawing together existing option pricing models we demonstrate how different degrees of managerial flexability can affect the value of a project. In particular we also include new option pricing results that allow us to properly take into account a firms exit option. Our paper illustrates that these disinvestment options can be valuable suggesting that managerial pessimism (i.e. consideration of outcomes if the project does not perform) can add value.