How will climate change influence phosphorus systems? : An expert elicitation approach

Negri, Camilla and Ezzati, Golnaz and Haygarth, Philip M. and Macrae, Merrin L. and Mellander, Per‐Erik and Spears, Bryan M. and Trojahn, Sara and Wandel, Johanna and Stutter, Marc (2026) How will climate change influence phosphorus systems? : An expert elicitation approach. Journal of Environmental Quality, 55 (2). ISSN 0047-2425

Text (jeq2.70167.pdf)
jeq2.70167.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial.
Download (1MB)

Abstract

Plain Language Summary: Phosphorus (P) is an essential resource, but its management is difficult because of both environmental and societal challenges. Climate change could make this worse, yet little research has connected climate, P, and society. To address this gap, we brought together international experts from science, policy, and industry to explore how climate change might affect agricultural P in soils, waters, and human systems. Experts highlighted key concerns by rating the importance of each issue and data availability. From this discussion, we identified major themes, including the need for more data on P in circular economies, climate adaptation, and policy development. Our findings show that experts believe that P must become part of climate change discussions, since ignoring it could lead to sudden and widespread risks. Better research and cooperation across disciplines are needed to guide sustainable P management in a changing climate.