The evolving individual protein intake and environmental footprint in China

Tian, Nike and Zhang, Haiyan and Liu, Lingxuan and Liu, Beibei (2026) The evolving individual protein intake and environmental footprint in China. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 230: 108889. ISSN 0921-3449

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Abstract

China’s shift from plant-based to animal-based protein has raised concerns over its health and environmental consequences. Drawing dietary data from nine provinces (1997–2011), this study quantifies the environmental impacts of changing protein consumption and highlights trade-offs between improved diet quality and environmental sustainability. Notable disparities emerge across regions and socioeconomic groups: high-income, male, and well-educated individuals tend to overconsume protein, while older adults, low-income groups, and people with obesity often face protein deficits. Scenario analysis suggests that curbing overconsumption could offset the environmental costs of addressing deficiencies. While adopting the Chinese Dietary Guidelines may increase environmental pressures, these can be mitigated by replacing red meat with poultry or plant-based protein. Our findings call for integrated dietary policies that align health and environmental objectives. Future guidelines should account for regional dietary cultures and the nutritional needs of vulnerable groups to promote more sustainable and equitable food system.