Climate-based Forecasting from National Culex Mosquito Surveillance to Support West Nile and Usutu Virus preparedness in England and Wales

De Klerk, Joanna and Sedda, Luigi and Haziqah-Rashid, Amirah and Widlake, Emma and Wilson, Roksana and Pilgrim, Jack and Vaux, Alexander and Tanianis-Hughes, Jolanta and Delnicka, Agata and Jealous, Amy and Abbott, Anthony and Haines, Catie and Johnston, Colin and Miller, Finn and Sherlock, Ken and Gandy, Sara and Biddlecombe, Sarah and Medlock, Jolyon and Blagrove, Marcus and Baylis, Matthew (2026) Climate-based Forecasting from National Culex Mosquito Surveillance to Support West Nile and Usutu Virus preparedness in England and Wales. Other. Research Square.

Abstract

Culex mosquitoes are widespread in temperate regions and play a key role in transmitting veterinary and human vector-borne diseases. In the United Kingdom, Culex pipiens s.l. is highly prevalent and a competent vector of West Nile and Usutu viruses. Coupled with the northward expansion of West Nile virus in Europe, this raises concerns about imminent emergence in the UK. For public and animal health preparedness, and effective vector control planning, it is essential to better understand the distribution of Culex mosquitoes in this area. This study developed species distribution maps for Culex pipiens pipiens, Culex pipiens molestus, and Culex torrentium abundance using data from the first nationwide stratified active mosquito surveillance programme in England and Wales in 2023, supplemented with adaptive surveillance in 2024. Culex p. pipiens models predicted higher abundances than the other two taxa. Regions of high abundance occurred across most of England, apart from the northwest, with the highest in eastern regions and estuarine areas. In contrast, higher elevation areas, including most of Wales, the North Pennines, and Yorkshire Dales, showed markedly lower abundances. Environmental drivers differed between forms. Culex p. pipiens abundance was strongly associated with precipitation-related covariates, whereas Culex p. molestus was mostly influenced by temperature covariates. These findings highlight the importance of modelling the two forms separately in risk analyses and distribution studies. The resulting models provide timely ecological insights to guide public health planning and targeted vector management, particularly given the recent detection of West Nile virus in the UK.