Connecting narratives and numbers to investigate the interaction of social, physical and technical determinants of rural water supply performance

MacAllister, Donald John and Whaley, Luke and Gurmessa, Seifu Kebede and Nedaw, Dessie and Tadesse, Yehualaeshet and Mwathunga, Evance and Mkandawire, Theresa and Makuluni, Patrick and Shaba, Chikondi and Banda, Sembeyawo and Owor, Michael M. and Okullo, Joseph and Katusiime, Felece and Carter, Richard and Chilton, John and Casey, Vincent and Fallas, Helen and Cleaver, Frances and MacDonald, Alan M. (2026) Connecting narratives and numbers to investigate the interaction of social, physical and technical determinants of rural water supply performance. PLOS Water, 5 (2): e0000486. ISSN 2767-3219

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Abstract

The performance of rural water supply infrastructure in Africa remains a considerable challenge. Performance is determined by interactions between social, technical and physical factors (the socio-material interface). Here we examine how breakdown, downtime, timeliness of repair, and socio-material factors, dynamically interact and mutually shape each other. We conducted interdisciplinary fieldwork at 145 handpumped boreholes across Ethiopia, Malawi and Uganda. Using regression analysis, we find that the probability of any failure occurring in the last year is dominated by physical and technical factors (handpump condition, water level, transmissivity, borehole construction and configuration), while the cumulative downtime in the previous year is dominated by social factors (demand, access to spares, finances). Cumulative failure is influenced by complex combinations of social and technical factors (finances, motivation, support, handpump condition, water level, transmissivity). Downtime duration from previous failure is influenced by skills and leadership in the community, and transmissivity and cylinder position in the borehole which in combination influence the risk of the handpump running dry. We find that ineffective finance and external support systems are worse than having no formal systems at all. In-depth narratives from nine sites showed that interactions between socio-material factors and performance and response outcomes are complex and multidimensional, shaping each other in counterintuitive ways. We find examples where external support providers are reluctant to conduct repairs, because they lack adequate equipment, creating tensions with communities. We find cases with perverse outcomes, for example well performing handpumps in locations with good hydrogeology allowing management and financial arrangements to evolve in ways that risk equitable water access. Similarly, capture of management arrangements by sections of the community resulting in poorly sited boreholes, inequitable skill development and poor performance outcomes. Recognising, understanding and working with these dynamic and multidirectional interactions can help ensure effective management and improved rural water supply performance.