Ghilardi, Matteo and Zilberman, Roy (2025) Fiscal Uncertainty in Habit-Forming and Lumpy Economies. Working Paper. Lancaster University, Department of Economics, Lancaster.
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
We study dividend-tax-induced fiscal uncertainty tied to deficit-financing concerns in a production-based general equilibrium model with habit-forming consumption and partially irreversible investment. Habits generate countercyclical investment and asset price dynamics following tax adjustments. Irreversibility and tax risk, in turn, bring asset price volatility closer to the data, trigger lumpy investment behavior, and raise medium-run fiscal spending multipliers. Tax-smoothing and irreversibility significantly enhance welfare despite increased valuation risk, while also revealing a trade-off between debt stabilization and stock price volatility. The irreversibility-habit-augmented model reconciles the limited decline and rapid recovery (i.e., lumpiness) in nonfinancial corporate investment following the 2012 American Taxpayer Relief Act.