The Barriers to Deployment of Renewable Energy : Application of Sequential Decision-Making and Derisking Models in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Alfaro-Pelico, Raul and Aggidis, George and Howard, David (2025) The Barriers to Deployment of Renewable Energy : Application of Sequential Decision-Making and Derisking Models in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies. PhD thesis, Lancaster University.

Text (2025AlfaroPelicoPhD)
2025AlfaroPelicoPhD.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike.
Download (3MB)

Abstract

This thesis analyses barriers to renewable energy deployment using two reference sequential decision-making and derisking models: the Lancaster University's North-West Hydro Resource Model (NWHRM); the United Nations Development Programme's Derisking Renewable Energy Investment (DREI) framework. The study draws on case studies and field research from Sub-Saharan Africa (Equatorial Guinea, South Africa, Namibia); Latin America (Panama, Paraguay); Central Asia (Mongolia, Tajikistan); and, the Caribbean (Barbados, Jamaica). It shows the interlinked nature of technical, financial, and social barriers and refines both DREI and NWHRM models to integrate governance, social acceptance and just inclusive transition considerations. As the site visits show, the policy and financial derisking instruments introduced in emerging markets and developing economies lower investment risks and the levelized cost of energy, such that combining NWHRM and DREI model approaches provides a globally applicable frameworks to assess the barriers to renewable energy investment.