Tropical biodiversity loss from land-use change is severely underestimated by local-scale assessments

Socolar, Jacob B. and Mills, Simon C. and Gilroy, James J. and Martínez-Revelo, Diego E. and Medina-Uribe, Claudia A. and Parra-Sanchez, Edicson and Ramirez-Gutierrez, Marcela and Sand Sæbø, Jørgen and Meneses, Henry S. and Pérez, Giovanny and Barlow, Jos and Ochoa Quintero, Jose M. and Freckleton, Robert P. and Haugaasen, Torbjørn and Edwards, David P. (2025) Tropical biodiversity loss from land-use change is severely underestimated by local-scale assessments. Nature Ecology and Evolution. ISSN 2397-334X

Abstract

Human impacts on nature span vast spatial scales that transcend abiotic gradients and biogeographic barriers, yet estimates of biodiversity loss from land-use change overwhelmingly derive from local-scale studies. Using a field dataset of 971 bird species sampled in forest and cattle pasture across 13 biogeographic regions of Colombia, we quantify biodiversity losses from local to near-national scales. Losses are on average 60% worse at the pan-Colombian scale than in individual regions, with underestimation remaining until six to seven biogeographic regions are sampled. Regional losses greatly exceed local losses when beta-diversity is high due to reduced species turnover in pasture across geographic space and elevation. Extrapolation from local-scale studies causes major underestimation of biodiversity loss, emphasizing the need to incorporate spatial structure into measures of change.