Changes in urgent and emergency care activity associated with COVID-19 lockdowns in a sub-region in the East of England : Interrupted times series analyses

Shabuz, Zillur and Bachmann, Max and Cullum, Rachel and Burke, Amanda and Jones, Charlotte Emily Louise and Enwo, Oby Otu and Dalton, Alice M. and Brainard, Julii and Saunders, Michael and Steel, Nicholas (2024) Changes in urgent and emergency care activity associated with COVID-19 lockdowns in a sub-region in the East of England : Interrupted times series analyses. PLoS One, 19 (11): e0311901. ISSN 1932-6203

Abstract

Background Access to and use of urgent and emergency care in the United Kingdom’s National Health Service reduced during COVID-19 related lockdowns but demand reportedly increased since then. We investigated the impact of COVID-19 on urgent and emergency health care services activity in an eastern England population of 1.1 million. Methods We used health care activity data from a municipal health department, recorded at the level of discrete events (such as visits to hospital or ambulance calls) to compare system activity between 2018–2020 (pre-COVID), 2020–2021 (lockdown) and 2021–2023 (post-lockdown), carrying out interrupted time series analyses to describe changes in activity. Results Daily emergency department (ED) attendances were 10% (95% confidence interval 9–12%) lower during the lockdown period, and 7% (6–8%) higher in the post-lockdown period than pre-COVID. Attendances arriving by ambulance were 13% (12–14%) lower post-lockdown than pre-COVID, while attendances of arrivals by other means were 17% (16–19%) higher. Post-lockdown, overall attendances were continually reducing. ED waiting times were 45% (44–47%) longer in the post-lockdown period compared to the pre-COVID period and continued to increase post-lockdown. There was a 15% (14–16%) reduction in daily ambulance dispatches post-lockdown versus pre-COVID. Ambulance arrivals with delayed handover to hospital care exceeding 60 minutes increased by 17% (16–18%) post-lockdown versus pre-COVID, and probability of delay showed a continuously upward trend post-lockdown of 20% (19–21%) per year. Conclusion Patients are facing long waits in EDs to be admitted to hospital, discharged or transferred. This results in delays in ambulances handing over patients and attending to other calls, which may explain decreasing rates of ambulance dispatches. Potential solutions are likely to involve enhancing the flow through and discharge of patients from hospital, and a whole systems approach which considers the capacity of the local health and care infrastructure, including intermediate care and social care.