Pathways for achieving climate and biodiversity targets through sustainable land-use and food systems in the UK

Jones, Sarah and Atkinson, Peter and Harrison, Paula and Henrys, Pete (2024) Pathways for achieving climate and biodiversity targets through sustainable land-use and food systems in the UK. PhD thesis, Lancaster University.

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Abstract

There is significant global awareness of the core challenges of climate change and biodiversity loss associated with land-use, with increased international commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and restore nature. Land-use has a critical role to play in overcoming these challenges. In the UK, current land-use is unsustainable, and will be unable to achieve national and international agreements for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity conservation. Business-as-usual is not sufficient, and the UK requires urgent and decisive action to mitigate climate change, reverse biodiversity decline whilst ensuring food security for future generations. Furthermore, the numerous alternative land-use configurations, and the complexity of governance and land-use in the UK, highlight the need for comprehensive and effective policy strategies for transforming land-use to achieve net-zero and biodiversity conservation. This thesis examined alternative pathways for land-use and food systems in the UK and devolved nations to achieve national and international climate and biodiversity agreements. Using a modified version of the FABLE Calculator (a simple integrated land-use model), alternative policy pathways were developed and modelled, and their feasibility assessed through spatialisation. Trade-offs and synergies within the pathways were analysed, and the implications of the policy pathways were evaluated. The results showed that current policies are inadequate for achieving net-zero or conserving biodiversity, highlighting the urgent need for transformational change. Alternative configurations of land-use, resulting from different policy combinations, indicate that whilst some pathways generated similar outcomes for achieving net-zero, there were greater gains for biodiversity in pathways that embed a multifunctional approach to land-use compared to those that do not. Integrating non-spatial FABLE projections with a downscaling algorithm enhanced the realism and applicability of the pathways, showing that the policy changes within the pathways are theoretically feasible given spatial environmental constraints. This is critical in moving from theoretical, high-level objectives to more localised and practical solutions. Overall, this thesis demonstrated the need for significant changes in policy, with increased ambitions across afforestation, crop and livestock productivity, stocking densities, biodiversity conservation, peatland restoration, dietary change and food waste. The findings underscore the urgent need for innovative, coordinated policy measures for supporting and incentivising transformative land-use changes. Through embracing these strategies, policy and decision-makers can pave the way towards a sustainable future that successfully balances climate change and biodiversity goals while maintaining a thriving agricultural sector.