Beyond unionism and nationalism : do the ‘neithers’ want a border poll and a United Ireland?

Tonge, Jon and Loughran, Thomas (2024) Beyond unionism and nationalism : do the ‘neithers’ want a border poll and a United Ireland? Irish Political Studies. ISSN 0790-7184

Abstract

This article draws upon new data from a recent Economic and Social Research Council funded project, Beyond Unionism and Nationalism, 1 to examine whether electors in Northern Ireland identifying as neither nationalist/republican nor unionist/loyalist, the ‘neithers’, desire a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional status (often labelled a border poll) on whether it should remain part of the UK or form part of a United Ireland and which of those two options they prefer. With surveys of public opinion and election results suggesting there are now three minorities in the region, unionists, nationalists and ‘neithers’, the views of the lattermost category may be vital in determining the arrival and outcome of a referendum. Utilising the largest n (2,045) set of face-to-face interviews with ‘neithers’ yet undertaken, the article suggests that their low levels of electoral activity extend to a current lack of enthusiasm for both an exercise in self-determination and a United Ireland. The piece also indicates, however, that national identification and religious affiliation are significant attitudinal indicators even among a group of electors located beyond the traditional bloc divide.