Widening global variability in grassland biomass since the 1980s

MacDougall, Andrew S. and Esch, Ellen and Chen, Qingqing and Carroll, Oliver and Bonner, Colin and Ohlert, Timothy and Siewert, Matthias and Sulik, John and Schweiger, Anna and Borer, Elizabeth T. and Naidu, Dilip and Bagchi, Sumanta and Hautier, Yann and Wilfahrt, Peter and Larson, Keith and Olofsson, Johan and Cleland, Elsa and Muthukrishnan, Ranjan and O’Halloran, Lydia and Alberti, Juan and Anderson, T. Michael and Arnillas, Carlos A. and Bakker, Jonathan D. and Barrio, Isabel C. and Biederman, Lori and Boughton, Elizabeth H. and Brudvig, Lars A. and Bruschetti, Martin and Buckley, Yvonne and Bugalho, Miguel N. and Cadotte, Marc W. and Caldeira, Maria C. and Catford, Jane A. and D’Antonio, Carla and Davies, Kendi and Daleo, Pedro and Dickman, Christopher R. and Donohue, Ian and DuPre, Mary Ellyn and Elgersma, Kenneth and Eisenhauer, Nico and Eskelinen, Anu and Estrada, Catalina and Fay, Philip A. and Feng, Yanhao and Gruner, Daniel S. and Hagenah, Nicole and Haider, Sylvia and Harpole, W. Stanley and Hersch-Green, Erika and Jentsch, Anke and Kirkman, Kevin and Knops, Johannes M. H. and Laanisto, Lauri and Lannes, Lucíola S. and Laungani, Ramesh and Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg and Macek, Petr and Martina, Jason P. and McCulley, Rebecca L. and Melbourne, Brett and Mitchell, Rachel and Moore, Joslin L. and Morgan, John W. and Muraina, Taofeek O. and Niu, Yujie and Pärtel, Meelis and Peri, Pablo L. and Power, Sally A. and Price, Jodi N. and Prober, Suzanne M. and Ren, Zhengwei and Risch, Anita C. and Smith, Nicholas G. and Sonnier, Grégory and Standish, Rachel J. and Stevens, Carly J. and Tedder, Michelle and Tognetti, Pedro and Veen, G. F. and Virtanen, Risto and Wardle, Glenda M. and Waring, Elizabeth and Wolf, Amelia A. and Yahdjian, Laura and Seabloom, Eric W. (2024) Widening global variability in grassland biomass since the 1980s. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 8. pp. 1877-1888. ISSN 2397-334X

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Abstract

Global change is associated with variable shifts in the annual production of aboveground plant biomass, suggesting localized sensitivities with unclear causal origins. Combining remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index data since the 1980s with contemporary field data from 84 grasslands on 6 continents, we show a widening divergence in site-level biomass ranging from +51% to -34% globally. Biomass generally increased in warmer, wetter and species-rich sites with longer growing seasons and declined in species-poor arid areas. Phenological changes were widespread, revealing substantive transitions in grassland seasonal cycling. Grazing, nitrogen deposition and plant invasion were prevalent in some regions but did not predict overall trends. Grasslands are undergoing sizable changes in production, with implications for food security, biodiversity and carbon storage especially in arid regions where declines are accelerating. [Abstract copyright: © 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.]