The Future Climate and Air Quality Response From Different Near-Term Climate Forcer, Climate, and Land-Use Scenarios Using UKESM1

Turnock, Steven T. and Allen, Robert and Archibald, Alex T. and Dalvi, Mohit and Folberth, Gerd and Griffiths, Paul T. and Keeble, James and Robertson, Eddy and O’Connor, Fiona M. (2022) The Future Climate and Air Quality Response From Different Near-Term Climate Forcer, Climate, and Land-Use Scenarios Using UKESM1. Earth's Future, 10 (8): e2022EF002. ISSN 2328-4277

Abstract

Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) can influence climate via interaction with the Earth's radiative balance and include both aerosols and trace gas constituents of the atmosphere (such as methane and ozone). Two of the principal NTCFs, aerosols (particulate matter) and tropospheric ozone (O3), can also affect local air quality when present in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Previous studies have shown that mitigation of NTCFs has the potential to improve air quality and reduce the rate of surface warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases. Here, we assess the combined air quality and climate impacts from changes in NTCFs under numerous different future mitigation scenarios, relative to a future reference scenario, that were conducted by a single Earth system model (UKESM1) as part of the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Co-benefits to both global air quality and climate are only achieved in the future scenario with strong mitigation measures applied to all NTCFs, particularly aerosols and methane, with penalties identified for inaction. When compared to the combined NTCF mitigation scenario, analysis of individual mitigation scenarios shows that there are important non-linearities and interactions between NTCFs (e.g., aerosols and clouds). If only aerosol components are mitigated, there are still benefits to air quality but detrimental impacts on climate, particularly at the regional scale. In addition, other changes in future land-use and climate could have important impacts on regional NTCFs, which should be considered when designing future mitigation measures to anthropogenic emissions.