How do i know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

Cloke, Hannah L. and Pappenberger, Florian and Smith, Paul J. and Wetterhall, Fredrik (2017) How do i know if I've improved my continental scale flood early warning system? Environmental Research Letters, 12 (4): 044006. ISSN 1748-9318

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Abstract

Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Environmental Research Letters
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2100/2105
Subjects:
?? copernicuseuropean flood awareness systemflood early warning systemsflood resilienceforecast skillmonetary valuemulti-forcing ensemblerenewable energy, sustainability and the environmentgeneral environmental sciencepublic health, environmental and occupat ??
ID Code:
203285
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
06 Sep 2023 14:50
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
16 Jul 2024 12:06