Global Flood Forecasting for Averting Disasters Worldwide

Hirpa, F. A. and Pappenberger, Florian and Arnal, L. and Baugh, C. A. and Cloke, H. L. and Dutra, E. and Emerton, R. E. and Revilla-romero, B. and Salamon, Peter and Smith, P. J. and Stephens, E. and Wetterhall, F. and Zsoter, E. and Thielen-Del Pozo, J. (2018) Global Flood Forecasting for Averting Disasters Worldwide. Geophysical Monograph Series, 233. pp. 205-228. ISSN 0065-8448

Abstract

Globally, floods are responsible for more than half of the total people affected by all weather-related disasters combined, causing a large number of deaths and significant economic losses. Global-scale flood forecasting systems play a key role in disaster risk reduction: they provide early flood information for several nations who are without local flood early warning systems and function as added value information for national services with their own early warning systems. Global flood forecasting is increasingly becoming attractive due to complete worldwide coverage and improving forecast skills. In this chapter, we present the recent advances in large-scale flood forecasting with a focus on already existing global and continental flood forecasting systems in operation. We also review different scientific methodologies in practice for evaluating and improving the forecast skill such as evaluation methods, precipitation bias corrections, multimodel approaches, and data assimilation. Additionally, we discuss how flood forecast information is used for supporting everyday operations of a humanitarian initiative. We also highlight the remaining challenges of improving the forecast provisions to meet end-users’ expectations.