Is there seasonal variation in gallstone related admissions in England?

Taib, Adnan and Killick, Rebecca and Hussain, Kamran and Patel, Harun and Obeidallah, Mohd Rami (2021) Is there seasonal variation in gallstone related admissions in England? HPB, 23 (11). pp. 1732-1743. ISSN 1365-182X

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Abstract

Background Gallstone related pathology (GRP) accounts for a significant proportion of general surgery admissions. The aim of this study is to investigate if seasonal variation for GRP admissions exist in England allowing improved resource allocation and planning. Methods This multicentre retrospective cohort study included only emergency adult (≥18 years old) admissions to acute secondary care with ICD-10 codes associated with gallstones between 01/01/2010 to 31/12/2019 in England using Hospital Episode Statistics data. Seasons were defined according to United Kingdom Met Office. Results A total of 396 879 GRP related admissions were recorded during the specified period, accounting for 1.44% of all emergency admissions. Our study suggests a significant seasonal peak in Summer (n=102 620) based cumulative admissions per season and a linear regression model (p<0.001), followed by Autumn (n=102 267), then Spring (n=97 807) and finally Winter (n=94 185). Spectral analysis confirmed there is seasonality in the emergency GRP admissions every 12 months. A forecasting model was shown to be reliable; all observed admissions for 2019 were within the 95% prediction intervals for each month for the proportion of emergency GRP admissions. Discussion Resource allocation towards the Summer months to target seasonal peaks in GRP should be considered.