Directional–seasonal extreme value analysis of North Sea storm conditions

Hansen, H.F. and Randell, D. and Zeeberg, A.R. and Jonathan, P. (2020) Directional–seasonal extreme value analysis of North Sea storm conditions. Ocean Engineering, 195. ISSN 0029-8018

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Abstract

Design and re-analysis of offshore structures requires the joint estimation of extreme values for a set of environmental variables, representing so-called long-term and short-term characteristics of the environment, subject to sources of systematic variation including directionality and seasonality. Estimation is complicated by numerous sources of uncertainty, typically including limited sample size and the specification of a number of analysis parameters (such as thresholds for peaks over threshold analysis). In this work, we present a model to estimate joint extremal characteristics of the ocean environment incorporating non-stationary marginal and conditional extreme value analysis, and thorough uncertainty quantification, within a Bayesian framework. The model is used to quantify the joint directional–seasonal structure of extremes waves, winds and currents at a location in the Danish sector of the North Sea.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Ocean Engineering
Additional Information:
This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Ocean Engineering. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Ocean Engineering, 195, 2020 DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.106665
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2305
Subjects:
ID Code:
139109
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
08 Jan 2020 13:10
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
20 Oct 2020 07:56