Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments

Benford, Diane and Halldorsson, Thorhallur and Jeger, Michael John and Knutsen, Helle Katrine and More, Simon and Naegeli, Hanspeter and Noteborn, Hubert and Ockleford, Colin and Ricci, Antonia and Rychen, Guido and Schlatter, Josef R and Silano, Vittorio and Solecki, Roland and Turck, Dominique and Younes, Maged and Craig, Peter and Hart, Andrew and Von Goetz, Natalie and Koutsoumanis, Kostas and Mortensen, Alicja and Ossendorp, Bernadette and Martino, Laura and Merten, Caroline and Mosbach-Schulz, Olaf and Hardy, Anthony (2018) Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessments. EFSA Journal, 16 (1): 05123. ISSN 1831-4732

Abstract

Abstract Uncertainty analysis is the process of identifying limitations in scientific knowledge and evaluating their implications for scientific conclusions. It is therefore relevant in all EFSA's scientific assessments and also necessary, to ensure that the assessment conclusions provide reliable information for decision-making. The form and extent of uncertainty analysis, and how the conclusions should be reported, vary widely depending on the nature and context of each assessment and the degree of uncertainty that is present. This document provides concise guidance on how to identify which options for uncertainty analysis are appropriate in each assessment, and how to apply them. It is accompanied by a separate, supporting opinion that explains the key concepts and principles behind this Guidance, and describes the methods in more detail.