An Experimental Test of the Predictive Power of Dynamic Ambiguity Models

Georgalos, Konstantinos (2019) An Experimental Test of the Predictive Power of Dynamic Ambiguity Models. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 59 (1). pp. 51-83. ISSN 0895-5646

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Abstract

In this paper we report results from an economic experiment where we investigate the predictive performance of dynamic ambiguity models in the gains domain. Representing ambiguity with the aid of a transparent and non-manipulable device (a Bingo Blower) and using two-stage allocation questions, we gather data that allow us to estimate particular parametric forms of the various functionals and compare their relative performance in terms of out-of-sample fit. Our data show that a dynamic specification of Prospect Theory has the best predictive capacity, closely followed by Choquet Expected Utility, while multiple priors theories can predict choice only for a very restricted subset of our subjects.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Additional Information:
The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-019-09311-7
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1400/1402
Subjects:
ID Code:
130551
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
17 Jan 2019 15:35
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
30 Mar 2020 10:28