Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management

Webb, Colleen and Ferrari, Matthew and Lindström, Tom and Carpenter, Tim and Dürr, Salome and Garner, Graeme and Jewell, Christopher Parry and Stevenson, Mark and Ward, Michael and Werkman, Marleen and Backer, Jantien and Tildesley, Michael (2017) Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 138. pp. 124-133. ISSN 0167-5877

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Abstract

Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application.

Item Type: Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title: Preventive Veterinary Medicine
Uncontrolled Keywords: /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1100/1103
Subjects:
Departments: Faculty of Health and Medicine > Medicine
ID Code: 125661
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 20 Jun 2018 13:40
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 21 Oct 2019 01:23
URI: https://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/125661

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