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On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it)

Beven, Keith and Smith, Paul and Wood, Andrew (2011) On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15. pp. 3123-3133. ISSN 1027-5606

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    Abstract

    Disinformation as a result of epistemic error is an issue in hydrological modelling. In particular the way in which the colour in model residuals resulting from epistemic errors should be expected to be non-stationary means that it is difficult to justify the spin that the structure of residuals can be properly represented by statistical likelihood functions. To do so would be to greatly overestimate the information content in a set of calibration data and increase the possibility of both Type I and Type II errors. Some principles of trying to identify periods of disinformative data prior to evaluation of a model structure of interest, are discussed. An example demonstrates the effect on the estimated parameter values of a hydrological model.

    Item Type: Article
    Journal or Publication Title: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
    Uncontrolled Keywords: hydrological modelling ; Disinformation ; uncertainty estimation ; parameter identification
    Subjects: UNSPECIFIED
    Departments: Faculty of Science and Technology > Lancaster Environment Centre
    ID Code: 51003
    Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
    Deposited On: 11 Nov 2011 11:35
    Refereed?: Yes
    Published?: Published
    Last Modified: 06 Sep 2013 22:58
    Identification Number:
    URI: http://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/51003

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