Methodological Framework for Air Travel Demand Forecasting

Karlaftis, Matthew G. and Zografos, Konstantinos and Papastavrou, Jason D. and Charnes, John M. (1996) Methodological Framework for Air Travel Demand Forecasting. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 122 (2). pp. 96-104. ISSN 0733-947X

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Abstract

Air-transport demand forecasting constitutes an important determinant of airport planning, design, and operations. Errors in forecasting can be very costly. Underestimating demand may lead to increased congestion, delay, and inadequate airport facilities. Overestimating demand may also create serious economic problems for airport authorities. It is, therefore, very important for airport planners to develop reliable forecasting models and to understand possible limitations in the forecasting accuracy of these models. The objective of this paper is to examine the predicting ability and forecasting accuracy of air-travel demand models. In particular, an analytical framework for developing econometric models is presented and postfact analysis is used to test the accuracy of the models. Statistical data describing air-travel demand patterns for two major international airports, the Frankfurt and the Miami International Airports, are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed models. In addition, the effect of external factors such as the deregulation of the air-transport industry is examined. The results suggest that simple models with few independent variables perform as well;Is more complicated and costly models, and that external factors have a pronounced effect on air-travel demand.

Item Type: Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Transportation Engineering
Uncontrolled Keywords: /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/aacsb/disciplinebasedresearch
Subjects:
Departments: Lancaster University Management School > Management Science
ID Code: 86519
Deposited By: ep_importer_pure
Deposited On: 30 May 2017 15:18
Refereed?: Yes
Published?: Published
Last Modified: 08 Oct 2019 02:59
URI: https://eprints.lancs.ac.uk/id/eprint/86519

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