A retail store SKU promotions optimization model for category multi-period profit maximization

Ma, Shaohui and Fildes, Robert (2017) A retail store SKU promotions optimization model for category multi-period profit maximization. European Journal of Operational Research, 260 (2). pp. 680-692. ISSN 0377-2217

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Consumer promotions are an important element of competitive dynamics in retail markets and make a significant difference in the retailer's profits. But no study has so far included all the elements that are required to meet retail business objectives. We extend the existing literatures by considering all the basic requirements for a promotional Decision Support System (DSS): reliance on operational (store-level) data only, the ability to predict sales as a function of prices and the inclusion of other promotional variables affecting the category. The new model delivers an optimizing promotional schedule at Stock-Keeping-Unit (SKU) level which maximizes multi-period category level profit under the constraints of business rules typically applied in practice. We first develop a high dimensional distributed lag demand model which integrates both cross-SKU competitive promotion information and cross-period promotional influences. We estimate the model by proposing a two stage sign constrained regularization approach to ensure realistic promotional parameters. Based on the demand model, we then build a nonlinear integer programming model to maximize the retailer's category profits over a planning horizon under constraints that model important business rules. The output of the model provides optimized prices, display and feature advertising planning together with sales and profit forecasts. Empirical tests over a number of stores and categories using supermarket data suggest that our model generates accurate sales forecasts and increases category profits by approximately 17% and that including cross-item and cross-period effects is also valuable.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
European Journal of Operational Research
Additional Information:
This is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in European Journal of Operational Research. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in European Journal of Operational Research, 260, 2, 2017 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.12.032
Uncontrolled Keywords:
?? or in marketingpromotion optimizationdemand forecastingfast-moving consumer goods retailingmodelling and simulationmanagement science and operations researchinformation systems and management ??
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Deposited On:
09 Jan 2017 11:50
Last Modified:
27 Nov 2023 00:18