Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering

Jackson, L. S. and Crook, J. A. and Jarvis, Andrew James and Leedal, David Thomas and Ridgwell, A. and Vaughan, Naomi and Forster, P. M. (2015) Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (4). pp. 1223-1231. ISSN 0094-8276

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In an assessment of how Arctic sea ice cover could be remediated in a warming world, we simulated the injection of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere making annual adjustments to injection rates. We treated one climate model realization as a surrogate “real world” with imperfect “observations” and no rerunning or reference to control simulations. SO2 injection rates were proposed using a novel model predictive control regime which incorporated a second simpler climate model to forecast “optimal” decision pathways. Commencing the simulation in 2018, Arctic sea ice cover was remediated by 2043 and maintained until solar geoengineering was terminated. We found quantifying climate side effects problematic because internal climate variability hampered detection of regional climate changes beyond the Arctic. Nevertheless, through decision maker learning and the accumulation of at least 10 years time series data exploited through an annual review cycle, uncertainties in observations and forcings were successfully managed.

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Journal Article
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Geophysical Research Letters
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This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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24 Oct 2016 09:04
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31 Dec 2023 00:45