An analysis of ozone damage to historical maize and soybean yields in the United States

McGrath, Justin M. and Betzelberger, Amy M. and Wang, Shaowen and Shook, Eric and Zhu, Xin-Guang and Long, Stephen P. and Ainsworth, Elizabeth A. (2015) An analysis of ozone damage to historical maize and soybean yields in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112 (46). pp. 14390-14395. ISSN 0027-8424

Abstract

Numerous controlled experiments find that elevated ground-level ozone concentrations ([O-3]) damage crops and reduce yield. There have been no estimates of the actual yield losses in the field in the United States from [O-3], even though such estimates would be valuable for projections of future food production and for cost-benefit analyses of reducing ground-level [O-3]. Regression analysis of historical yield, climate, and [O-3] data for the United States were used to determine the loss of production due to O-3 formaize (Zeamays) and soybean (Glycine max) from 1980 to 2011, showing that over that period production of rain-fed fields of soybean and maize were reduced by roughly 5% and 10%, respectively, costing approximately $9 billion annually. Maize, thought to be inherently resistant to O-3, was at least as sensitive as soybean to O-3 damage. Overcoming this yield loss with improved emission controls or more tolerant germplasm could substantially increase world food and feed supply at a time when a global yield jump is urgently needed.