Ball, Frank and Neal, Peter John (2003) The great circle epidemic model. Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 107 (2). pp. 233-268. ISSN 0304-4149
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
We consider a stochastic model for the spread of an epidemic among a population of n individuals that are equally spaced around a circle. Throughout its infectious period, a typical infective, i say, makes global contacts, with individuals chosen independently and uniformly from the whole population, and local contacts, with individuals chosen independently and uniformly according to a contact distribution centred on i. The asymptotic situation in which the local contact distribution converges weakly as n→∞ is analysed. A branching process approximation for the early stages of an epidemic is described and made rigorous as n→∞ by using a coupling argument, yielding a threshold theorem for the model. A central limit theorem is derived for the final outcome of epidemics that take off, by using an embedding representation. The results are specialised to the case of a symmetric, nearest-neighbour local contact distribution