Compound Poisson limits for household epidemics

Neal, Peter John (2005) Compound Poisson limits for household epidemics. Journal of Applied Probability, 42 (2). pp. 334-345. ISSN 0021-9002

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We consider epidemics in populations that are partitioned into small groups known as households. Whilst infectious, a typical infective makes global and local contact with individuals chosen independently and uniformly from the whole population or their own household, as appropriate. Previously, the classical Poisson approximation for the number of survivors of a severe epidemic has been extended to the household model. However, in the current work we exploit a Sellke-type construction of the epidemic process, which enables the derivation of sufficient conditions for the existence of a compound Poisson limit theorem for the survivors of the epidemic. The results are specialised to the Reed-Frost and general stochastic epidemic models.

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Journal Article
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Journal of Applied Probability
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30 Nov 2015 09:08
Last Modified:
22 Nov 2022 02:36