A quarter of a century of job transitions in Germany

Kattenbach, Ralph and Schneidhofer, Thomas and Lücke, Janine and Latzke, Markus and Loacker, Bernadette and Schramm, Florian and Mayrhofer, Wolfgang (2014) A quarter of a century of job transitions in Germany. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 84 (1). pp. 49-58. ISSN 0001-8791

Abstract

By examining trends in intra-organizational and inter-organizational job transition probabilities among professional and managerial employees in Germany, we test the applicability of mainstream career theory to a specific context and challenge its implied change assumption. Drawing on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we apply linear probability models to show the influence of time, economic cycle and age on the probability of job transitions between 1984 and 2010. Results indicate a slight negative trend in the frequency of job transitions during the analyzed time span, owing to a pronounced decrease in intra-organizational transitions, which is only partly offset by a comparatively weaker positive trend towards increased inter-organizational transitions. The latter is strongly influenced by fluctuations in the economic cycle. Finally, the probability of job transitions keeps declining steadily through the course of one's working life. In contrast to inter-organizational transitions, however, this age effect for intra-organizational transitions has decreased over time.