Lamb, Rob and Keef, Caroline and Tawn, Jonathan and Laeger, Stefan and Meadowcroft, I. and Surendran, S. and Dunning, P. and Batstone, C. (2010) A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 3 (4). pp. 323-336. ISSN 1753-318X
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
To date, national- and regional-scale flood risk assessments have provided valuable information about the annual expected consequences of flooding, but not the exposure to widespread concurrent flooding that could have damaging consequences for people and the economy. We present a new method for flood risk assessment that accommodates the risk of widespread flooding. It is based on a statistical conditional exceedance model, which is fitted to gauged data and describes the joint probability of extreme river flows or sea levels at multiple locations. The method can be applied together with data from models for flood defence systems and economic damages to calculate a risk profile describing the probability distribution of economic losses or other consequences aggregated over a region. The method has the potential to augment national or regional risk assessments of expected annual damage with new information about the likelihoods, extent and impacts of events that could contribute to the risk.