The accuracy of intermittent demand estimates

Syntetos, Aris A. and Boylan, John (2005) The accuracy of intermittent demand estimates. International Journal of Forecasting, 21 (2). pp. 303-314. ISSN 0169-2070

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Abstract

Intermittent demand appears sporadically, with some time periods showing no demand at all. In this paper, four forecasting methods, Simple Moving Average (SMA, 13 periods), Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Croston's method, and a new method (based on Croston's approach) recently developed by the authors, are compared on 3000 real intermittent demand data series from the automotive industry. The mean signed and relative geometric root-mean-square errors are shown to meet the theoretical and practical requirements of intermittent demand, as do the Percentage Better and Percentage Best summary statistics based on these measures. These measures are subsequently applied in a simulation experiment. The out-of-sample comparison results indicate superior performance of the new method. In addition, the results show that the mean signed error is not strongly scale dependent and the relative geometric root-mean-square error is a well-behaved accuracy measure for intermittent demand.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
International Journal of Forecasting
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1400/1403
Subjects:
ID Code:
73097
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
27 Feb 2015 11:46
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
28 Oct 2020 03:49