The "Business-As-Usual" growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions – historical trends and near-term forecasts

Jarvis, Andrew and Hewitt, C. N. (2014) The "Business-As-Usual" growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions – historical trends and near-term forecasts. Earth System Dynamics Discussions, 5 (2). pp. 1143-1158.

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Abstract

We analyse the global primary energy use and total CO2 emissions time series since 1850 and show that their relative growth rates appear to exhibit periodicity with a fundamental timescale of ~60 years and with significant harmonic behaviour. Quantifying the inertia inherent in these dynamics allows forecasting of future "business as usual" energy needs and their associated CO2 emissions. Our best estimates for 2020 are 800 EJ yr−1 for global energy use and 14 Gt yr−1 for global CO2 emissions, with both being above almost all other published forecasts. This suggests the energy and total CO2 emissions landscape in 2020 may be significantly more challenging than currently envisaged.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Earth System Dynamics Discussions
Additional Information:
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
ID Code:
72067
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
08 Dec 2014 11:54
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
01 Dec 2020 02:28