Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan

Maystadt, Jean-Francois and Calderone, Margherita and You, Liangzhi (2015) Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan. Journal of Economic Geography, 15 (3). pp. 649-671. ISSN 1468-2702

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Our article contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflicts by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict, whereas the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 24–31% in the future under a median scenario. Our analysis also sheds light on the competition over natural resources, in particular water, as the main driver of such relationship in a region where pastoralism constitutes the dominant livelihood.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Journal of Economic Geography
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© The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Uncontrolled Keywords:
?? weather shocksviolent conflictsudandisaggregated spatial analysispastoralismeconomics and econometricsgeography, planning and development ??
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Deposited On:
01 Sep 2014 11:27
Last Modified:
28 Nov 2023 00:16