Estimating changes in Scottish soil carbon stocks using ECOSSE. I. Model description and uncertainties

Smith, Jo and Gottschalk, Pia and Bellarby, Jessica and Chapman, Stephen and Lilly, Allan and Towers, Willie and Bell, John and Coleman, Kevin and Nayak, Dali and Richards, Mark and Hillier, Jon and Flynn, Helen and Wattenbach, Martin and Aitkenhead, Matt and Yeluripurti, Jagadeesh and Farmer, Jenny and Milne, Ronnie and Thomson, Amanda and Evans, Chris and Whitmore, Andy and Falloon, Pete and Smith, Pete (2010) Estimating changes in Scottish soil carbon stocks using ECOSSE. I. Model description and uncertainties. Climate Research, 45. pp. 179-192. ISSN 0936-577X

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Abstract

To predict the response of C-rich soils to external change, models are needed that accurately reflect the conditions of these soils. Estimation of Carbon in Organic Soils—Sequestration and Emissions (ECOSSE) is a model that allows simulations of soil C and N turnover in both mineral and organic soils using only the limited meteorological, land-use and soil data that is available at the national scale. Because it is able to function at field as well as national scales if appropriate input data are used, field-scale evaluations can be used to determine uncertainty in national simulations. Here we present an evaluation of the uncertainty expected in national-scale simulations of Scotland, using data from the National Soil Inventory of Scotland. This data set provides measurements of C change for the range of soils, climates and land-use types found across Scotland. The simulated values show a high degree of association with the measurements in both total C and change in C content of the soil. Over all sites where land-use change occurred, the average deviation between the simulated and measured values of percentage change in soil C was less than the experimental error (11% simulation error, 53% measurement error). This suggests that the uncertainty in the national-scale simulations will be ~11%. Only a small bias in the simulations was observed compared to the measured values, suggesting that a small underestimate of the change in soil C should be expected at the national scale (–4%).

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Climate Research
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1900/1902
Subjects:
ID Code:
68746
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
28 Feb 2014 12:03
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
05 Jul 2020 04:04