Stylized facts of money and credit over the business cycles

Kollintzas, Tryphon and Konstantakopoulou, Ioanna and Tsionas, Michael (2011) Stylized facts of money and credit over the business cycles. Applied Financial Economics, 21 (23). pp. 1735-1755. ISSN 0960-3107

Abstract

This article investigates the stylized facts of money and credit over the business cycles in nine Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries using quarterly data from 1960 to 2006, through the application of two main detrending methods. Our findings confirm the existence of substantive cyclical regularities across countries. In particular, money supply is procyclical and tends to move in advance of real output; velocity of money is procyclical; domestic credit and credit are procyclical and lag the cycle; deposits are procyclical and tend to lead the cycle; nominal interest rates are procyclical and short-term interest rates lag the cycle, while long-term interest rates lead the cycles, in the majority of countries; term spread is countercyclical and lags the cycle; prices are countercyclical; inflation is procyclical and lags the cycle and liquidity effect is confirmed in all countries.