Predictable dynamics in implied volatility surfaces from OTC currency options

Chalamandaris, Georgios and Tsekrekos, Andrianos (2010) Predictable dynamics in implied volatility surfaces from OTC currency options. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34 (6). pp. 1175-1188. ISSN 0378-4266

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Recent empirical studies report predictable dynamics in the volatility surfaces that are implied by observed index option prices, such as those prescribed by general equilibrium models. Using an extensive data set from the over-the-counter options market, we document similar predictability in the factors that capture the daily variation of surfaces implied by options on 25 different foreign exchange rates. We proceed to demonstrate that simple vector autoregressive specifications for the factors can help produce accurate out-of-sample forecasts of the systematic component of the surface at short horizons. Profitable delta-hedged positions can be set up based on these forecasts; however, profits disappear when typical transaction costs are taken into account and when trading rules on wide segments of the surface are sought.

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Journal Article
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Journal of Banking and Finance
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20 May 2013 09:16
Last Modified:
21 Nov 2022 23:48