Goderis, Benedikt and Ioannidou, Vasso P. (2008) Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks? : new evidence. Journal of International Economics, 74 (1). pp. 158-169. ISSN 0022-1996
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
Kraay [Kraay, A., 2003. Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks? Journal of International Economics 59, 297-321.] documents the lack of any systematic association between monetary policy and the outcome of a speculative attack. This paper revisits Kraay's work and modifies it by introducing an improved measure of monetary policy and an additional country-specific fundamental, short-term corporate debt, to capture balance sheet vulnerabilities emphasized by the recent currency crises literature. The results show that for low levels of short-term corporate debt, raising interest rates lowers the probability of a successful attack. This effect decreases and eventually reverses for higher levels of debt. These findings contrast earlier empirical evidence and imply a fundamental reconsideration of the role of monetary policy during currency crises.