Predicting space climate change

Barnard, L. and Lockwood, M. and Hapgood, M. A. and Owens, M. J. and Davis, C. J. and Steinhilber, F. (2011) Predicting space climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (16): L16103. ISSN 0094-8276

[thumbnail of grl28365.pdf]
grl28365.pdf - Published Version

Download (361kB)


The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest-fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long-term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300-year record. Citation: Barnard, L., M. Lockwood, M. A. Hapgood, M. J. Owens, C. J. Davis, and F. Steinhilber (2011), Predicting space climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16103, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048489.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Information:
Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
Uncontrolled Keywords:
?? falleventsmagnetic-fieldopen solar fluxgeophysicsearth and planetary sciences(all) ??
ID Code:
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
07 May 2013 09:21
Last Modified:
31 Dec 2023 00:28