Bayesian doubly adaptive elastic-net Lasso for VAR Shrinkage

Gefang, Deborah (2014) Bayesian doubly adaptive elastic-net Lasso for VAR Shrinkage. International Journal of Forecasting, 30 (1). pp. 1-11. ISSN 0169-2070

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Abstract

We develop a novel Bayesian doubly adaptive elastic-net Lasso (DAELasso) approach for VAR shrinkage. DAELasso achieves variable selection and coefficient shrinkage in a data-based manner. It deals constructively with explanatory variables which tend to be highly collinear by encouraging the grouping effect. In addition, it also allows for different degrees of shrinkage for different coefficients. Rewriting the multivariate Laplace distribution as a scale mixture, we establish closed-form conditional posteriors that can be drawn from a Gibbs sampler. An empirical analysis shows that the forecast results produced by DAELasso and its variants are comparable to those from other popular Bayesian methods, which provides further evidence that the forecast performances of large and medium sized Bayesian VARs are relatively robust to prior choices, and, in practice, simple Minnesota types of priors can be more attractive than their complex and well-designed alternatives.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
International Journal of Forecasting
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/1400/1403
Subjects:
ID Code:
63419
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
18 Apr 2013 07:54
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
25 Feb 2020 07:08