Long-term changes in tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations

Eyring, V. and Cionni, I and Arblaster, J and Sedlacek, J and Perlwitz, Judith and Young, Paul and Bekki, Slimane and Bergmann, D. and Cameron-Smith, Philip and Collins, William J. and Faluvegi, G. and Gottschaldt, K. -D. and Horowitz, L. W. and Kinnison, Doug and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Marsh, D.R. and Saint-Martin, D. and Shindell, Drew T. and Sudo, K. and Szopa, Sophie and Watanabe, S (2013) Long-term changes in tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118 (10). pp. 5029-5060. ISSN 0747-7309

[thumbnail of jgrd50316]
PDF (jgrd50316)
jgrd50316.pdf - Published Version

Download (6MB)


[1] Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960–2005) and future (2006–2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (~20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to ~10 DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

Item Type:
Journal Article
Journal or Publication Title:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Additional Information:
©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
?? cmip5stratospheric ozonestratospheric temperature trendszonal wind changes tropospheric ozone chemistry-climate coupling ??
ID Code:
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
20 Mar 2013 15:19
Last Modified:
02 Jun 2024 23:43