The Theta model:an essential forecasting tool for supply chain planning

Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos and Assimakopoulos, Vassilios and Bougioukos, Nikos and Litsa, Akrivi and Petropoulos, Fotios (2012) The Theta model:an essential forecasting tool for supply chain planning. In: Advances in automation and robotics, Vol. 2. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, 2 . Springer Verlag, Berlin, pp. 431-437. ISBN 9783642256455

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The Theta model created a lot of interest in academic circles due to its surprising performance in the M3-competition, the biggest ever time series forecasting competition. As a result in the subsequent years it became a benchmark in any empirical forecasting exercise and an essential tool for efficient Supply Chain Management ad planning as it provides very accurate point forecasts. The present study focuses on if the Theta model is a special case of Simple Exponential Smoothing with drift (SES-d). The Theta model outperforms SES-d in the Quarterly-M3 and Other-M3 subsets by 0.30% and 0.36%.

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18 Sep 2012 14:01
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21 Nov 2022 15:26