The Theta model : an essential forecasting tool for supply chain planning

Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos and Assimakopoulos, Vassilios and Bougioukos, Nikos and Litsa, Akrivi and Petropoulos, Fotios (2012) The Theta model : an essential forecasting tool for supply chain planning. In: Advances in automation and robotics, Vol. 2 : Selected Papers from the 2011 International Conference on Automation and Robotics (ICAR 2011), Dubai, December 1–2, 2011. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, 2 . Springer Verlag, Berlin, pp. 431-437. ISBN 9783642256455

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Abstract

The Theta model created a lot of interest in academic circles due to its surprising performance in the M3-competition, the biggest ever time series forecasting competition. As a result in the subsequent years it became a benchmark in any empirical forecasting exercise and an essential tool for efficient Supply Chain Management ad planning as it provides very accurate point forecasts. The present study focuses on if the Theta model is a special case of Simple Exponential Smoothing with drift (SES-d). The Theta model outperforms SES-d in the Quarterly-M3 and Other-M3 subsets by 0.30% and 0.36%.

Item Type:
Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/engineering/electrical_engineering
Subjects:
?? theta modelexponential smoothingm3-competitionsupply chain forecastingelectrical engineering ??
ID Code:
58336
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
18 Sep 2012 14:01
Refereed?:
No
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
16 Jul 2024 03:18