Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts

Smith, Paul and Beven, Keith and Panziera, Luca and Germann, Urs (2012) Flash flood forecasting using Data-Based Mechanistic models and radar rainfall forecasts. In: Weather radar and hydrology. IAHS Publication, 351 . International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Exeter, pp. 562-567. ISBN 9781907161261

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Abstract

The parsimonious time series models used within the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling framework have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work the DBM methodology is applied to forecast discharges during a flash flood in a small Alpine catchment. In comparison to previous work this catchment responds rapidly to rainfall. It is demonstrated, by example, that the use of a radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast coupled to a DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. A treatment of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and illustrated.

Item Type:
Contribution in Book/Report/Proceedings
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/researchoutput/libraryofcongress/ge
Subjects:
ID Code:
56767
Deposited By:
Deposited On:
08 Aug 2012 14:12
Refereed?:
Yes
Published?:
Published
Last Modified:
01 Jan 2020 05:34